Entries by Mark Wilson

In The Doghouse – 2018

Here is our 2018 list of funds with estimated distributions in excess of 20% of NAV.  Just over 80% of the firms in my database have released their distribution estimates, so this list is almost complete. It’s important to note that funds on this list are not necessarily poor quality, but these funds are worth a […]

2018 Predictions

Are there going to be a lot of large capital gain distributions this year? Phil Tetlock’s book “Superforecasting” provides a number of tools which can help us turn our wild guesses into reasonable predictions.  Tetlock’s Superforecasters often started with a “base rate of similar occurring events” so let’s begin there.  After tracking my own list […]

In The Doghouse – 2017

Here is our 2017 list of funds with estimated distributions in excess of 20% of NAV.  About 85% of fund firms have released their distribution estimates, so this list is pretty complete at this point. It’s important to note that funds on this list are not necessarily poor quality, but these funds are worth a second […]

Predicting 2017’s Capital Gain Distributions

“How painful will this year’s capital gains distributions be?” Warren Buffet once quipped: “Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the forecast.”  This is one reason I hesitate to forecast what we might see this year for capital gains distributions from mutual funds.  Nonetheless, I’ll reveal a little about myself and will […]

Capital Gains Stats – 2016

At this point we’ve found capital gains estimates for almost 90% of the firms in our expanded database. Here are the current stats:       photo credit: Menage a Moi Day 267 – Anyone Understand Spreadsheets..? via photopin (license)  

In the Doghouse – 2016

Here is our current list of funds with estimated distributions in excess of 20% of NAV.  Almost 90% of the fund firms in our complete database have provided estimates, so this list is nearing completion. This is a much smaller list than we’ve had in previous years; this is good news! It’s important to note that […]

CGV Basics – What Are You Thankful For?

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday.  We get four days off, gather with our family and friends, and prepare and eat good food.  All of this without the extra “stresses” of the 4th of July or (at our house) Christmas. Once everyone is seated around the dining room table, we wait for my father-in-law to ask […]

CGV Basics – 2016 Distributions, Not Looking Too Spooky

Halloween is the time of year to start thinking about the impact of capital gains distributions from your mutual funds and ETFs.  We’ve spent the last month updating our site and building our Free and Pro databases.  We’ve already made two passes through over 250 fund firm websites looking for 2016 distribution estimates. As I […]